Bayesian inference for risk assessment of the position of study program within the integrated university: a case study of engineering management at Technical faculty in Bor

Abstract

This paper defines issues involved with the Integrated University (IU) from the aspect of thepositioning of study program (SP) as the basic component of modern IU. Model for the riskassesment of the SP position in IU is developed on the principles of Bayes' theorem of conditionalprobability. In the proposed model, a priori probability is updated with previous events (evidencenodes) ei, whose occurrence caused a final posterior probability of the position of SP in IU. Definedmodel was developed based on the example of SP - Engineering management (EM) within theTechnical Faculty in Bor, in order to assess the probability of its position in the future IU in Belgrade.The results show that SP-EM has a probability above 99% with its current structure and newactivities, to be a part of the IUB. Defined model has a universal character and can be applied toanalyze the posterior probability of any SP's position and risk assesment with the variation of thenumber and content of the evidence nodes ei.