Bayesian inference for risk assessment of the position of study program within the integrated university: a case study of engineering management at Technical faculty in Bor
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This paper defines issues involved with the Integrated University (IU) from the aspect of thepositioning of study program (SP) as the basic component of modern IU. Model for the riskassesment of the SP position in IU is developed on the principles of Bayes' theorem of conditionalprobability. In the proposed model, a priori probability is updated with previous events (evidencenodes) ei, whose occurrence caused a final posterior probability of the position of SP in IU. Definedmodel was developed based on the example of SP - Engineering management (EM) within theTechnical Faculty in Bor, in order to assess the probability of its position in the future IU in Belgrade.The results show that SP-EM has a probability above 99% with its current structure and newactivities, to be a part of the IUB. Defined model has a universal character and can be applied toanalyze the posterior probability of any SP's position and risk assesment with the variation of thenumber and... content of the evidence nodes ei.
Кључне речи:
Bayes / Integrated University / model / probability / study programИзвор:
Serbian Journal of Management, 2014, 9, 2, 231-240Издавач:
- University of Belgrade - Technical Faculty in Bor
Институција/група
Mašinski fakultetTY - JOUR AU - Savić, Marija AU - Đorđević, Predrag AU - Nikolić, Đorđe AU - Mihajlović, Ivan AU - Živković, Živan PY - 2014 UR - https://machinery.mas.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/5507 AB - This paper defines issues involved with the Integrated University (IU) from the aspect of thepositioning of study program (SP) as the basic component of modern IU. Model for the riskassesment of the SP position in IU is developed on the principles of Bayes' theorem of conditionalprobability. In the proposed model, a priori probability is updated with previous events (evidencenodes) ei, whose occurrence caused a final posterior probability of the position of SP in IU. Definedmodel was developed based on the example of SP - Engineering management (EM) within theTechnical Faculty in Bor, in order to assess the probability of its position in the future IU in Belgrade.The results show that SP-EM has a probability above 99% with its current structure and newactivities, to be a part of the IUB. Defined model has a universal character and can be applied toanalyze the posterior probability of any SP's position and risk assesment with the variation of thenumber and content of the evidence nodes ei. PB - University of Belgrade - Technical Faculty in Bor T2 - Serbian Journal of Management T1 - Bayesian inference for risk assessment of the position of study program within the integrated university: a case study of engineering management at Technical faculty in Bor EP - 240 IS - 2 SP - 231 VL - 9 DO - 10.5937/sjm9-6391 ER -
@article{ author = "Savić, Marija and Đorđević, Predrag and Nikolić, Đorđe and Mihajlović, Ivan and Živković, Živan", year = "2014", abstract = "This paper defines issues involved with the Integrated University (IU) from the aspect of thepositioning of study program (SP) as the basic component of modern IU. Model for the riskassesment of the SP position in IU is developed on the principles of Bayes' theorem of conditionalprobability. In the proposed model, a priori probability is updated with previous events (evidencenodes) ei, whose occurrence caused a final posterior probability of the position of SP in IU. Definedmodel was developed based on the example of SP - Engineering management (EM) within theTechnical Faculty in Bor, in order to assess the probability of its position in the future IU in Belgrade.The results show that SP-EM has a probability above 99% with its current structure and newactivities, to be a part of the IUB. Defined model has a universal character and can be applied toanalyze the posterior probability of any SP's position and risk assesment with the variation of thenumber and content of the evidence nodes ei.", publisher = "University of Belgrade - Technical Faculty in Bor", journal = "Serbian Journal of Management", title = "Bayesian inference for risk assessment of the position of study program within the integrated university: a case study of engineering management at Technical faculty in Bor", pages = "240-231", number = "2", volume = "9", doi = "10.5937/sjm9-6391" }
Savić, M., Đorđević, P., Nikolić, Đ., Mihajlović, I.,& Živković, Ž.. (2014). Bayesian inference for risk assessment of the position of study program within the integrated university: a case study of engineering management at Technical faculty in Bor. in Serbian Journal of Management University of Belgrade - Technical Faculty in Bor., 9(2), 231-240. https://doi.org/10.5937/sjm9-6391
Savić M, Đorđević P, Nikolić Đ, Mihajlović I, Živković Ž. Bayesian inference for risk assessment of the position of study program within the integrated university: a case study of engineering management at Technical faculty in Bor. in Serbian Journal of Management. 2014;9(2):231-240. doi:10.5937/sjm9-6391 .
Savić, Marija, Đorđević, Predrag, Nikolić, Đorđe, Mihajlović, Ivan, Živković, Živan, "Bayesian inference for risk assessment of the position of study program within the integrated university: a case study of engineering management at Technical faculty in Bor" in Serbian Journal of Management, 9, no. 2 (2014):231-240, https://doi.org/10.5937/sjm9-6391 . .