Revealing the background of groundwater level dynamics: Contributing factors, complex modeling and engineering applications

Abstract

Authors provide extensive analysis of groundwater level dynamics, in order to classify the observed data, to determine the role of contributing factors and to derive specific estimation models, based on the recordings made at four piezometric stations in Serbia: Leskovac, Kruševac, Negotin and Bogatić. Results obtained indicate the predominant impact of noise confirmed by surrogate data testing, determinism test and Box–Jenkins approach. It is shown that surface water level has a strong impact on the observed dynamics, while the effect of rainfall is almost statistically insignificant. Authors also propose different estimation models: as a combination of deterministic and stochastic components, as a nonlinear function of contributing factors and in a form of system of stochastic differential equations. At the end, authors illustrate simple application of some of derived models in engineering practice for slope stability analyzes.