Probabilistička analiza uticaja slobodnog boka na stabilitet broda u oluji

Abstract

Slobodni bok morskih brodova određuje se pomoću determinističkih odredbi Međunarodne konvencije o teretnoj vodnoj liniji. U ovom radu, međutim, koristi se probabilistički postupak kako bi se ocenio uticaj slobodnog boka na dinamičku stabilnost broda u oluji. Serijom numeričkih eksperimenata, procenjuje se verovatnoća gubitka stabiliteta malog višenamenskog teretnog broda izloženog istovremenom dejstvu neregularnih bočnih talasa i udara stohastički promenljivog bočnog vetra, pri čemu je visina slobodnog boka sistematski varirana. Uticaj slobodnog boka kvantifikovan je opsegom metacentarskih visina pri kojima se brod može smatrati stabilnim sa probabilističke tačke gledišta. Rad predstavlja korak ka uspostavljanju procedure čijom bi se upotrebom u postupku projektovanja mogla postići bolja ravnoteža između sigurnosti i ekonomičnosti broda. PR Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. TR35009. The research presented in the paper was performed within the framework of the project: Development of next generation of safe, efficient, ecological (SE-ECO) ships, executed by Department of Naval Architecture, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering University of Belgrade.

Freeboard assignment for seagoing vessels is carried out according to the deterministic provisions of the International Convention on Load Lines. In present investigation, however, an attempt is made to evaluate the influence of freeboard on the dynamic stability of ships in storms using a probabilistic approach. The probability of a stability failure of a small multipurpose cargo ship exposed to irregular beam waves and stochastic beam wind is estimated in a series of numerical experiments, whereby the freeboard of the examined vessel is systematically varied. The effect of freeboard is quantified in terms of a range of metacentric heights ensuring sufficient stability from the probabilistic point of view. The paper presents a step towards a procedure that could enable a better balance of safety and cost-efficiency in the ship design framework.