Ocenjivanje rizičnih investicionih projekata

Abstract

Predmet ovog istraživanja su rizični investicioni projekti, za koje nije dovoljno primeniti samo neki od metoda ocene projekata (NPV, AE, IRR itd), jer je rizik donošenja pogrešne odluke znatan. Zbog toga se u ovakvim slučajevima moraju primeniti neki drugi metodi koji uzimaju u obzir rizik projekta. U praksi se najčešće za ocenu projekata koriste metode NPV i IRR. Međutim, za ocenu rizičnih projekata ove metode ne mogu da daju pouzdanu ocenu o isplativosti projekta. Zbog toga se u ovom radu predlaže jedna druga kombinacija metoda, koja bi dala pouzdaniju sliku o projektu. Na konkretnom primeru urađena je NPV analiza, senzitivna analiza i Monte Karlo simulacija. Na taj način se došlo do određenih rezultata koji omogućuju pouzdanije ocenjivanje inženjerskog investicionog projekta, što predstavlja doprinos ovog rada.

The subject of this investigation are risky investment projects that some project evaluation methods (NPV, AE, IRR etc) are insufficient to be applied to, because the risk of wrong decision-making is considerable. That is the reason why in such cases some other methods taking into account project risk must be implemented. In practice, the NPV and IRR methods are most often used for project evaluation. However, these methods cannot provide reliable evaluation of project cost-effectiveness for the case of risky projects. Therefore, in this paper another combination of methods is proposed that would give a more reliable picture of the project. Using a concrete example, NPV analysis, sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation were done. In this way, certain results were arrived at providing a more reliable evaluation of an engineering investment project, which represents the contribution of this paper.