Periodic and autoregressive models of groundwater level dynamics
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In this paper, authors examine the groundwater level oscillation at groundwater station
Bogatić near Šabac (Serbia), for the period 2002-2014. Analysis is done by transforming the
observation data into Fourier series within fundamental period of 5 years, and by deriving a
model based on the autocorrelation properties of the recorded data. One should note that this
is the first time that such analyzes are preformed for the groundwater level oscillation
observed in Serbia. The derived model based on groundwater level periodicity is represented
by a combination of sine and cosine waves. Analysis shows rather satisfying statistical
accuracy of the model, with R
2=0.707 and mean absolute error of 0.34m, which fails to
capture the highest values of the groundwater level for the analyzed period. Second model is
expressed in a form of a simple correlation between the two successive observations, with a
time delay τ=1 and 4. Both models are derived for the period 2003-2009,... and their prediction
accuracy is checked for the period 2010-2014. Both of these models provide more accurate
predictions in comparison to the model based on the groundwater level periodicity.
Keywords:
Fourier series / periodicity / autocorrelation / groundwater level / time delaySource:
Proceedings of the The 6th International Congress of Serbian Society of Mechanics, Tara, June 19-21, 2017, 2017, 1-10Publisher:
- Serbian Society of Mechanics
Funding / projects:
- Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources of Serbia (RS-MESTD-Technological Development (TD or TR)-37005)
- Application of Novel Measurement and Computational Techniques on Investigation of Air Flow in Ventilation Systems of Energy Extremely Efficient (“Passive”) Buildings (RS-MESTD-Technological Development (TD or TR)-35046)
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Mašinski fakultetTY - CONF AU - Guranov, Iva AU - Kostić, Srđan AU - Vasović, Nebojša PY - 2017 UR - https://machinery.mas.bg.ac.rs/handle/123456789/3977 AB - In this paper, authors examine the groundwater level oscillation at groundwater station Bogatić near Šabac (Serbia), for the period 2002-2014. Analysis is done by transforming the observation data into Fourier series within fundamental period of 5 years, and by deriving a model based on the autocorrelation properties of the recorded data. One should note that this is the first time that such analyzes are preformed for the groundwater level oscillation observed in Serbia. The derived model based on groundwater level periodicity is represented by a combination of sine and cosine waves. Analysis shows rather satisfying statistical accuracy of the model, with R 2=0.707 and mean absolute error of 0.34m, which fails to capture the highest values of the groundwater level for the analyzed period. Second model is expressed in a form of a simple correlation between the two successive observations, with a time delay τ=1 and 4. Both models are derived for the period 2003-2009, and their prediction accuracy is checked for the period 2010-2014. Both of these models provide more accurate predictions in comparison to the model based on the groundwater level periodicity. PB - Serbian Society of Mechanics C3 - Proceedings of the The 6th International Congress of Serbian Society of Mechanics, Tara, June 19-21, 2017 T1 - Periodic and autoregressive models of groundwater level dynamics EP - 10 SP - 1 UR - https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_machinery_3977 ER -
@conference{ author = "Guranov, Iva and Kostić, Srđan and Vasović, Nebojša", year = "2017", abstract = "In this paper, authors examine the groundwater level oscillation at groundwater station Bogatić near Šabac (Serbia), for the period 2002-2014. Analysis is done by transforming the observation data into Fourier series within fundamental period of 5 years, and by deriving a model based on the autocorrelation properties of the recorded data. One should note that this is the first time that such analyzes are preformed for the groundwater level oscillation observed in Serbia. The derived model based on groundwater level periodicity is represented by a combination of sine and cosine waves. Analysis shows rather satisfying statistical accuracy of the model, with R 2=0.707 and mean absolute error of 0.34m, which fails to capture the highest values of the groundwater level for the analyzed period. Second model is expressed in a form of a simple correlation between the two successive observations, with a time delay τ=1 and 4. Both models are derived for the period 2003-2009, and their prediction accuracy is checked for the period 2010-2014. Both of these models provide more accurate predictions in comparison to the model based on the groundwater level periodicity.", publisher = "Serbian Society of Mechanics", journal = "Proceedings of the The 6th International Congress of Serbian Society of Mechanics, Tara, June 19-21, 2017", title = "Periodic and autoregressive models of groundwater level dynamics", pages = "10-1", url = "https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_machinery_3977" }
Guranov, I., Kostić, S.,& Vasović, N.. (2017). Periodic and autoregressive models of groundwater level dynamics. in Proceedings of the The 6th International Congress of Serbian Society of Mechanics, Tara, June 19-21, 2017 Serbian Society of Mechanics., 1-10. https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_machinery_3977
Guranov I, Kostić S, Vasović N. Periodic and autoregressive models of groundwater level dynamics. in Proceedings of the The 6th International Congress of Serbian Society of Mechanics, Tara, June 19-21, 2017. 2017;:1-10. https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_machinery_3977 .
Guranov, Iva, Kostić, Srđan, Vasović, Nebojša, "Periodic and autoregressive models of groundwater level dynamics" in Proceedings of the The 6th International Congress of Serbian Society of Mechanics, Tara, June 19-21, 2017 (2017):1-10, https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_machinery_3977 .