Development and Application of a Decision Support System for Human Reliability Assessment - A Case Study of an Electric Power Company

Abstract

This paper describes the human reliability assessment using absolute probability judgment (APJ) method in the Electric Power Company of Serbia (EPS). Taking into account conventional APJ approach, a new decision support tool EPS-APJ was developed. The EPS-APJ tool is intended for use by a group of experts for human error probability assessment. The basic goal of the tool is to facilitate the process of decision-making by experts, in the complex environment of the electric power companies. The usefulness of this new tool is approved in a case study of use of the EPS-APJ for the purpose of the analysis of a repair intervention on a 10/0.4-kV steel lattice tower Nogaje', in the EPS. For the purpose of this study, a database on work-related injuries, accidents, and critical interventions occurred over a 10-year period was created. The research comprised analysis of 1074 workplaces, with the total of 3997 employees. The case study performed at the EPS has confirmed that the EPS-APJ tool for quantification of human errors is highly applicable, comprehensive, and simple to use. Comparison of the results obtained by application of the EPS-APJ tool versus the basic APJ method has confirmed the accuracy of the decision support tool, and significant speed advantage in conducting an expert evaluation.